OpenAI confidentially files draft S-1, targeting $1T+ IPO valuation

OpenAI has confidentially filed draft S-1 registration documents with the SEC, a move first reported by Reuters and confirmed by independent observers including Simon Willison, who noted both OpenAI and Anthropic now have confidential S-1s on file — Anthropic having filed on June 1. The expected valuation exceeds $1 trillion, which would place OpenAI among the most valuable companies ever to approach public markets.

The filing arrives amid a frenzied capital-raising environment as AI developers race to fund compute. Sam Altman tied the move to his 'Compute is destiny' framing, and the IPO would give OpenAI access to public capital to match the multi-billion-dollar infrastructure commitments being made by rivals — including Anthropic's reported $12B Amazon Trainium fleet expansion and xAI's gigawatt-scale Colossus 2 buildout.

The competitive context is stark: investors are split on whether a $1T+ valuation is justified, with skeptics pointing to OpenAI's still-mounting compute costs and the commoditization pressure from cheaper models like DeepSeek. François Chollet publicly cautioned that 'it can be a bubble even if the tech works,' arguing strong product-market fit doesn't guarantee favorable economics. Watch for the eventual public S-1 to reveal OpenAI's actual revenue, burn rate, and the structure of its Microsoft relationship — details that confidential filings keep sealed until close to the roadshow.